"Transport Industry in Russia. Results of 2018 and Trends for 2019. Development Prospects up to 2021" (доступна обновленная версия)

Project concept. Conducting daily monitoring and studying in detail the Russian economy and its certain segments for over 20 years, INFOLine experts arrived at the idea of creating a unique product - an integrated line of studies of key economic sectors in Russia.

Analytical materials include the dynamics of industry development over the past 7 years and development prospects for the next three years in the following areas:

• "Construction Industry of Russia"
• "Transport Industry of Russia"
• "Agroindustrial Complex of Russia"
• "Food Industry and Food Market of Russia"
• "Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia"
• "Food Retail and Consumer Market of Russia"
• "Non-Food Retail and the Consumer Market of Russia".

The studies have a common structure, and this makes it possible not only to obtain detailed information about the state and prospects of an industry, but also to analyze and compare development indicators of industries among themselves.

PLEASE NOTE! The studies are issued in an innovative format, as a convenient electronic presentation. This is the optimal format, which, in addition to analytical texts, includes numerous graphic materials (charts and graphs), as well as hyperlinks to essential documents and corporate websites.

Relevance of the study. "Transport Industry of Russia. Results of 2018. Trends for 2019. Development Prospects up to 2021". The Russian transport system is one of the longest in the world, but its significant drawback is its radial nature, which has formed historically due to the political development of the country as a highly-centralized state. The insufficiently favorable layout of waterways, relative remoteness of building stone deposits from populated areas (to create horse-drawn and motor roads), long distances, and complete nationalization of the economy in the USSR contributed to the hypertrophied role of Russian railways at the expense of other transport modes.

The state of the transport industry is closely interconnected with the situation in other industries — e.g. the production dynamics of cargo-generating industries significantly affect the dynamics of freight transportation — and with macroeconomic events. For example, sanctions imposed against Russia in 2014 affected the transportation market, and, the market of refrigerated food transportation from Europe was disproportionately badly affected by the food embargo. At the same time, the volume of transportation to the countries of the Customs Union and Asia has significantly increased. Transport companies were forced to intensely optimize transportation costs and logistics costs under new conditions. The structure of transport and logistics flows has changed: it has become more profitable to use road transport instead of rail in some areas or sea transport instead of air transport in others. In 2017, intensified coal exports determined the dynamics of rail transport shipments. The growth in coal and grain exports in 2017 had a positive effect on the dynamics of dry cargo transshipment in Russian seaports. In 2018, the growth trend of loading and cargo turnover on the Russian Railways network, primarily coal, ferrous metals, timber cargo and grain, continued.

In order to analyze the state of the transport industry and understand the path along which it will develop further, we conducted an extensive study of the industry covering all its segments. The proposed product can help you determine the position of your own company regarding the industry dynamics and outline possible ways of business development.

Study purpose: 

·        Analysis of the status and development prospects of the transport industry as a whole and by individual transport modes (rail, water, road, air)

·        Description of milestones in the transport industry by market segments, companies

·        Rating of railway companies in terms of traffic volume and fleet in the management, rating of ports by cargo turnover, rating of airlines by goods and passenger transport

·        Analysis of regulatory changes, trends in government regulation of the transport industry

·        Identification and description of major investment projects in the transport industry

·        Description of key market players

·        Preparation of a scenario forecast for the transport industry development.

Applications of study results: marketing and strategic planning, transport market analysis, benchmarking and competitive analysis of companies.

Study timeframe:  dynamics of various industry indicators since 2011 (volume of goods and passenger transportation in general and by different transport modes, freight turnover and passenger traffic in the industry as a whole and by different transport modes, dynamics of the freight car fleet, tariff indexation, etc.), development prospects in 2019-2021 years (macroeconomic indicators of Russia, implementation of individual investment projects, regulatory changes). 

Study period: H1 2019

Study advantages:

·        Innovative format of electronic presentation

·        Structured description and analysis of trends and prospects for the transport industry development in Russia

·        Custom ratings compiled by INFOLine analysts:

o   INFOLine Rail Russia TOP Rating in terms of traffic and fleet in management

o   Port rating by freight turnover

o   Ratings of airlines on the transportation volume of goods and passengers

·        Company profiles for TOP-10 operators of railway rolling stock (UCL Rail, FFC, Globaltrans, NefteTransServis, Transoil).

Study objectives and structure by sections: 

Part I. Transport industry performance indicators: Macroeconomic indicators of the transport industry: transportation of goods and cargo turnover by transport modes; indexation of freight rates; debt of enterprises in the fields of transport and communications on bank loans in rubles and foreign currency, lending to transport organizations; granting loans to companies in the fields of transport and communications; Passenger turnover by transport modes; passenger turnover structure by transport modes; dynamics and structure of Russia"s GDP.

Part II. Transport industry milestones: Monitoring of the most important regulatory changes in the transport sector: state regulation and support; international activity; major investment projects; largest M&A deals; resignations and appointments.

Part III. Rail transport. Transportation volume and cargo turnover; structure of freight transportation and cargo turnover of railway transport; freight transportation by rail by profitability segments; structure of freight transportation by rail by profitability segments; container traffic volume, leading container ship operators; dynamics of the average shipment delivery speed. Dynamics and forecast of the railway rolling stock fleet: fleet of freight cars; purchases and decommissioning. Major investment projects of railway transport. INFOLINE RAIL RUSSIA TOP Rating: fleet in the management and ownership of TOP-10 operators; cargo turnover and transportation of TOP-10 operators; cargo turnover and carriage per car of TOP-10 operators; revenue with account of railway tariff, net profit of TOP-10 operators; revenue per car of TOP-10 operators; revenue per tkm of cargo turnover of TOP-10 operators.

Part IV. Road transport. Main indicators of road transport: Transportation and cargo turnover of road transport; Road haulage and forecast, Commercial road freight turnover and forecast. Major investment projects in the road transport industry.

Part V. Water transport: Main indicators of sea transport: transshipment of cargo in the Russian sea ports; sea transport cargo turnover in Russia; cargo turnover of inland water transport in Russia; cargo shipping by inland water transport; Port ratings: cargo turnover of TOP-10 Russian ports. Forecast of cargo transportation and river transport cargo turnover. Investment projects for ports and terminals.

Part VI. Air transport. Main indicators of air transport: Passenger turnover of air transport; transportation of passengers by air. Rating of airlines: Rating of airports; transportation of goods and mail by TOP-10 Russian airlines; cargo turnover of TOP-10 Russian airlines; passenger transportation of TOP-10 Russian airlines; passenger turnover of TOP-10 Russian airlines. Airport investment projects.

Part VII. Rating and description of logistics companies. INFOLine Logistic Russia TOP Rating: financial and operational indicators; traffic volume, revenue, gross profit and profitability, net profit margin, revenue margin; staff strength and company productivity.

Part VIII. Development prospects of the transport industry: description of transport industry development scenarios up to 2021 and forecast for shipments, cargo turnover, and transport industry development in 2019-2021.

Experience and references: INFOLine has been carrying out custom and independent studies on the transport market for its clients since 2006. The leading industry INFOLine Rail Russia TOP rating of Russia and countries using 1,520 mm gauge railways is issued annually since 2006 and quarterly from 2007. Since 2006, the Industry Study "Market of Railway Freight Transport of the Russian Federation" has been published that most fully reflects the state of the railway freight transport market in terms of main cargoes and types of rolling stock. Our regular customers are Globaltrans Investments Plc, RTK, GK, Transoil LLC, NefteTransService Managing Company, Novotrans, Group LLC, RPK UWC PJSC, RM Rail Managing Company, VTB-Leasing JSC, Sberbank Leasing JSC, Oil Company Rosneft PJSC, SUEK JSC, NP OPZhT, Goldman Sachs International Ltd, Trading House Bashkhim, etc.

You can request the Information Needs Questionnaire and a complete list of finished Studies and other INFOLine information products HERE.

Send us a filled questionnaire to get a short version of any product you are interested in for FREE. 

Information sources:

·        Data from the Federal State Statistics Service, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, Federal Customs Service, Central Bank of the Russian Federation, unified interdepartmental information and statistical system, Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, etc.

·        INFOLine products: INFOLine Rail Russia TOP periodical review, study "Freight Railway Transport Market of the Russian Federation", Thematic News: "Russian Railway Transport", Thematic News: "Railway Engineering in Russia and Neighboring Countries", Thematic News: "Shipbuilding in Russia and Neighboring Countries".

·        Reports and statements of companies.

·        Questioning and interviewing of more than 100 operators of railway rolling stock and manufacturers of railway rolling stock, as well as leasing companies.

·        Rate monitoring in the rental market of railway rolling stock.

·        Data of leading transport companies (website materials, press releases).

·        Materials of over 5,000 Russian media (daily monitoring of t federal and regional newspapers, news agencies, electronic media), as well as industry press.

A synergistic effect is achieved with the simultaneous use of the study "Transport Industry of Russia. Results of 2018. Trends for 2019. Development Prospects up to 2021" with other INFOLine products for the transport industry:

·        Regular reviews of transport industry news as part of the of the "Thematic News" service:

o   Thematic News: "Railway Transport in Russia"

o   Thematic News: "Railway Engineering in Russia and Neighboring Countries"

o   Thematic News: "Shipbuilding in Russia and Neighboring Countries"

o   Thematic News "Logistic and Warehouse Activities in Russia"

·        Periodic reviews

o   INFOLine Rail Russia TOP

o   "Investment Projects in the Russian Transport Infrastructure"

·        Industry studies:

o   "Freight Rail Transport Market of Russia"

o   "Shipbuilding Industry of Russia"

·        Industry reviews of investment projects: 

o   "200 Projects of Logistics Complexes Planned and under Construction in Russia. Projects of 2017-2020"