The Objective of the
"Oil and gas industry of Russia. Results of 2013 and forecast till 2020" report is a comprehensive, integrated study of development dynamics of oil-and-gas industry of Russia, the key trends of governmental regulation of this sector, dynamics of investment activities of the major companies in oil-and-gas sector in Russia, assessment of the current volume of investments in oil-and-gas industry as a whole and by its segments, making a forecast for volume of investments in oil-and-gas industry till 2018, assessment of production facilities and transportation infrastructure.
In the process of preparation of
the research the key trends that define directions for the development of oil and gas production and refining industries of Russia were identified. According to the results of 2013 in Russia 523.3 billion tonnes of oil with gas condensate were recovered, along with 668 billion cubic meters of natural gas. However the like-for-like growth rates are declining in oil sector: increase of productivity declined from 2.2% in 2009 to 1% in 2013. Moreover in 2014-2015 the dynamics of energy resources is to be negative: the decrease of the volumes is forecast on the level of 0.2% in 2014 and 0.5% in 2015.
In mid-term prospective the main barriers for the investments in the oil-and-gas sectors in Russia are vagueness of the word energy market and low efficiency of the governmental regulation in the sector: system of tax breaks is not transparent enough, the creation of a differentiated approach to the regulation in accordance with the level of complexity of the resources recovery is not completed, the impact of incentives for increasing the efficiency in the energy sector is limited by the contradictions in the decisions of the regulator. On the one hand several stimuli for the intensive development are introduced. In November 2013 the amendments to the lows on "State Regulation of Foreign Trade Activity" and "Gas export" were introduced, ant it was the legislative determination of a liberalisation trend in the Liquefied Gas export. This activity provides the base for the extension of the competition between "Gazprom", "Novatek" and "Rosneft". Meanwhile the in-country competition for "Gazprom" is growing as well: in 2013-2020 the new factors of the gas sector development are determined by the recovery and processing level increase for not affiliated companies- "Novatek" and "NK Rosneft". However, besides the toughening of the competition the intensification of governmental presence is observed: the consolidation of "Itera" and "TNK-BP" actives by "NK Rosneft" in 2013 leads to the creation of the second governmental holding in gas sector, comparable in its mid-term production capacity with the leader of the independent segment - "Novatek" (thereunto "NK Rosneft" initiated the construction of the LNG plant in Far East region of Russia and in December 2013 it signed a contract, worth 270 bln dollars, on the supply of 365 mln tonnes of oil to China in 25 years period). Additionally in 2013 the Federal law on subsoil usage limited the access of private investors to Russian shelf oil and gas resources: the main fields had been already distributed between "NK Rosneft" and "Gazprom", arctic shelf deposits development was monopolised by the governmental structures.
A positive tendency of the oil industry is formation of new oil producing centres in the Western and Eastern Siberia, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), at Sakhalin’s shelf, in the Caspian Sea. However, commissioning of new capacities in 2013-2018 does not compensate for production decline at depleted fields. Furthermore, commissioning of new oil deposits requires corresponding development of systems for associated petroleum gas reclamation, reclamation of condensate and other hydrocarbon materials, since their extraction volumes exceed the existing production capacities of petrochemistry enterprises, as well as capacities of pipeline transportation systems. Amid the decline of the American import of energy resources, reallocation of supply flows of Near East countries from the US to Europe, active policy of import diversification conducted by the EU countries, the main possibility for Russian gas sector development is associated with intensive growth in the economies of the Asia-Pacific region and its potential enlargement of the demand for Russian LNG. The time frame for such a possibility for Russia is virtually limited: the commissioning of the main facilities is planned only in 2018, while the share of Russia on the world LNG market will have reduced from 4.5% to 2% by 2020, despite the project of Ministry of Energy to make it twice as big as now. Governmental programme "Energy efficiency and energy sector development in 2013-2020" envisages commissioning of 3 hew LNG plants with total capacity of 35 mln tonnes per year. It, according to the programme, can stimulate the share of Russia on the associate market to come up to 10.2%.
Growing energy consumption necessitates implication of non-conventional types of oil and gas reserves, especially hard-to-recover ones (high viscosity oil, oil in hardly permeable underground reservoirs, reserves of shelf deposits). The act on stimulation of hard-to-recover reserves development provides differentiated tax rates; the approach to taxation of the natural gas industry is to be changed radically: starting from July 2014 the severance tax will be calculated based on a formula that depends on the natural gas and condensate prices. Tax incentives for hard-to-recover reserves, among other things, will allow Rosneft JSC to exploit about 1.4 billion tonnes of oil reserves and achieve by 2020 the additional volume of oil production amounting to about 7.3 million tonnes annually with potential growth to 13.5 million tonnes annually by 2030 with a stable oil rate-plateau.
In 2013 the set of projects for modernisation of the oil processing facilities is on an active stage of implementation. The Russian Ministry of Energy reported that there were no significant delays in fulfilment by the oil companies of their ORP construction and renovation commitments. According to the INFOLine estimations total investments into oil sector in 2014-2020 will come up to 364.4 bln dollars, while total investments in gas segment are evaluated at a level of 263.7 bln dollars for the same period.
Oil and gas industry of Russia. Results of 2013 and forecast till 2020 contains an introductory part, which describes the objectives, tasks and structure of the research, main prerequisites and results of the product’s development. It is followed by 4 main sections:
Section I. Condition of Russian oil and gas industry and world market includes description of the current situation and trends of mineral resources base development in Russia (proved reserves, oil and gas production and refining volumes in the world and in Russia), dynamics of prices on the world and home markets, analysis of the main indicators of production infrastructure development in extraction and refining segments, volumes of liquefied gas production, analysis of industry’s demand for investments and special features of the government regulation.
Section II. Benchmarking of activities of the largest companies includes ratings of companies by their main operational and financial indicators, as well as investment activity indicators.
Section III. Analysis of the production infrastructure of the oil and gas industry describes main production and refining facilities of oil and gas industry by indicators of production capacity, amortisation and others.
Section IV. Investment project and forecast for development of oil and gas industries of Russia describes the investment activity and its key focus, forecast for investments volume by the main segments: production, transportation and refining capacities in the oil and gas industry of Russia in 2014-2020.
For the purpose of verification and update of the information about the companies included in this Research, in March 2014 the specialists of INFOLine used the following sources:
- Materials of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Statistical Review of World Energy sector by British Petroleum, data from the Institute of Energy Strategy , the Institute of Contemporary Development, the Institute for Energy and Finance, information from the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia, Association of Russian Oil Refiners and Petrochemical Engineers, and etc;
- Materials published by the Russian Government: strategy of development of oil and gas, petrochemical industry, fuel and energy complex of Russia as a whole;
- Materials published by companies in the oil and gas industry (annual and quarterly reports, financial reports, corporate presentations, and etc);
- Data of the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energy Complex under the Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service;
- Service "Subject news: Oil and Gas Industry of the Russian Federation" and archive materials on the topics of "Oil industry" and "Oil and gas processing industry", proceedings of international and Russian media (printed and electronic media, news agencies).
The most important features of
the research are as follows:
- Up-to-date forecast of investments into oil and gas industry during 2014-2020, structured by industry segments;
- Integral description of the oil and gas production, transportation and refining infrastructure, characteristics of the key development trends of facilities in each segment;
- Forecast for growth of capacities for oil and gas production, transportation and processing, taking into account the conditions of currently operating facilities and investment projects being implemented in the industry;
- Comparative analysis and ratings of operational, financial and investment indicators of the major market players according to the results of 2013.
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